The Home Advantage
Three nations, sixteen cities, and a continent's worth of expectation. What the model — and the moment — make of the first 48-team World Cup.
This is a World Cup of a new shape: 48 teams, 104 matches, three host nations stitched together across four time zones. The United States stages the lion's share — every match from the quarter-finals onward, and the final at MetLife Stadium — while Mexico's Estadio Azteca becomes the first venue to host matches at three different World Cups, and Canada hosts the tournament for the very first time.
The backdrop is unavoidably political. A tournament this size, on this stage, arrives with a sitting U.S. administration eager to claim it as a showcase, organizers juggling border logistics across three countries, and a global audience watching how a divided host handles the world's most unifying event. The model, mercifully, has no opinion on any of that — but the stories it generates can't help brushing up against it.
On the pitch, the home math is humbler than the politics. The model gives the United States a realistic run to the knockout rounds and a puncher's chance beyond, powered by Pulisic; it likes Mexico to ride the Azteca's altitude and noise out of the group; and it treats Canada as the dark horse that makes one round further than anyone expects.
Home advantage is real in the data — a few percentage points of win probability, a nudge in the refereeing noise, a louder building. Across a 48-team field, a few percentage points is sometimes all it takes.
AI-generated predictions — not real results. Not affiliated with FIFA, its member associations, teams or players.