Brazil vs France: A Final Disguised as an Opener

It is, on paper, absurd: the world's top two ranked sides drawn together on matchday one. The model treats Brazil vs France less like a group game and more like a dress rehearsal — and indeed, it stages the rematch in the final.

Brazil 62.7%, draw 23.8%, France 13.5%. The edge comes from territory. The simulations give Brazil sustained pressure down the left through Vinícius Jr, a 57% share of the ball, and a clear lead in expected goals (2.14 to 1.08). France's path to a result is narrower but real: direct transitions into the space behind Brazil's full-backs, with Mbappé the most likely Frenchman to score.

The projected scoreline is 2–1. Vinícius opens it, Mbappé answers from the run of play, and Endrick — again — has the final word.

Watch the second half. The model flags the 60'–75' window as France's most dangerous, the point at which Brazil's intensity historically dips and the counter-attack bites. If France are going to steal it, that's when. If they don't, this is the first chapter of a story that ends with the same two teams and a trophy between them.