The AI predicted a different matchup here
- 1
Pre-tournament bracket: Brazil v England in this slot — wrong matchup.
Its original bracket had Norway reaching the Round of 32 and England reaching the Quarter-final.
- 2
Reality: Norway v England.
The real bracket broke differently, so the pre-tournament prediction for this game no longer applied.
- 3
Re-predicted with the real teams, before kickoff: Norway 1–2 England, England through at 65.0%.
Every knockout round was re-predicted this way once the real matchups were known. This fresh call — not the original one — is what the accuracy grade below measures.
Haaland — four goals in two knockout games and the man who felled Brazil — keeps Norway alive in any tie, but their defence has shipped eight already and England's Bellingham–Rice axis controls midfield; with Kane's penalty-box precision, Tuchel's side should edge it even with Quansah suspended after his red card against Mexico.
EnglandHaaland — four goals in two knockout games and the man who felled Brazil — keeps Norway alive in any tie, but their defence has shipped eight already and England's Bellingham–Rice axis controls midfield; with Kane's penalty-box precision, Tuchel's side should edge it even with Quansah suspended after his red card against Mexico.
Re-prediction vs Result
10.0/10Exact scoreline called. Graded against the AI's fresh call for the real matchup — not the original pre-tournament prediction (archived below).
AI Win Probability — real matchup
NORENGProbability of winning the tie — re-predicted before kickoff with the real teams.
From the archive — superseded
The original pre-tournament prediction: Brazil v England
Before the tournament, the AI’s bracket had this matchup in this slot. Reality drew Norway v England instead, so everything below is kept for the record only — it is not graded against the real result above.
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 34’
- 38’⚽Kane
- 67’
- 71’
- 84’
- 95’
- 109’
- 113’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Quarter-final
- Date
- 11 Jul 2026
- Kick-off
- 21:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Hard Rock Stadium
- City
- Miami Gardens
Pressing & Heat Zones
Brazil dominated wide-left through Vinícius and pinned England deep
England compact and counter-focused, ceding territory
4-2-3-15-3-2Brazil subs
England subs
A classic knockout heavyweight clash in the Miami heat. England arrived with a clear plan: sit compact, let Brazil have the ball, and strike on transition and set pieces. It nearly worked. Marc Guéhi won a soft penalty when Danilo Luiz caught Ollie Watkins, and Harry Kane buried it for a 38th-minute lead. Brazil, frustrated by Pickford and a deep five-man England rearguard, finally cracked it on 71 minutes when Vinícius Júnior burned past Reece James and pulled back for Raphinha to sweep home. With both sides cancelling each other in a cagey final 20, the game went to extra time, where Brazil's bench depth told: Endrick latched onto a Paquetá through ball on 109 minutes to send the Seleção into the semis. England's low block held for 108 minutes but couldn't survive Brazil's relentless wide overloads.
- Brazil out-shot England 21-12 but needed extra time to break a resilient England block
- Harry Kane's 38th-minute penalty gave England a shock lead against the run of play
- Vinícius Júnior drove the equaliser and tormented Reece James down the left all night
- Endrick's 109th-minute winner off the bench settled a heavyweight quarter-final
- England's xG of 1.3 came almost entirely from the penalty and two set pieces
Predicted Match Report
Under the lights at Hard Rock Stadium, two of the tournament favourites traded blows in a quarter-final that lived up to its billing. England, marshalled by Gareth-style pragmatism, defended deep and pounced first: Danilo Luiz's clumsy challenge on Watkins gifted a penalty, and Harry Kane sent Alisson the wrong way on 38 minutes. Brazil poured forward after the break, Vinícius Júnior an unplayable menace down the left, and the pressure finally broke England on 71 when Vini's cutback found Raphinha to level. Pickford kept his side alive with stops from Cunha and Neymar as the tie crawled into extra time. There, the decisive moment arrived on 109 minutes — Lucas Paquetá threaded a pass into the channel and substitute Endrick coolly slotted past Pickford. England threw bodies forward late, but Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalhães stood firm. Brazil march on to the semi-finals.