The AI predicted a different matchup here
- 1
Pre-tournament bracket: Spain v Turkey in this slot — wrong matchup.
Its original bracket had Spain reaching the Semi-final and Belgium reaching the Round of 16.
- 2
Reality: Spain v Belgium.
The real bracket broke differently, so the pre-tournament prediction for this game no longer applied.
- 3
Re-predicted with the real teams, before kickoff: Spain 2–1 Belgium, Spain through at 63.0%.
Every knockout round was re-predicted this way once the real matchups were known. This fresh call — not the original one — is what the accuracy grade below measures.
Spain are the only side yet to concede a goal in the tournament — five wins, 9–0 on aggregate — and Rodri and Pedri's control should starve a Belgian attack that lives in transition, even with De Ketelaere arriving red-hot after his double against the USA. Belgium's ageing spine survived Senegal by a whisker and won't get that many openings here: Yamal against Theate's flank is where a tight quarter-final tips Spain's way, 2–1.
BelgiumSpain are the only side yet to concede a goal in the tournament — five wins, 9–0 on aggregate — and Rodri and Pedri's control should starve a Belgian attack that lives in transition, even with De Ketelaere arriving red-hot after his double against the USA. Belgium's ageing spine survived Senegal by a whisker and won't get that many openings here: Yamal against Theate's flank is where a tight quarter-final tips Spain's way, 2–1.
Re-prediction vs Result
10.0/10Exact scoreline called. Graded against the AI's fresh call for the real matchup — not the original pre-tournament prediction (archived below).
AI Win Probability — real matchup
ESPBELProbability of winning the tie — re-predicted before kickoff with the real teams.
From the archive — superseded
The original pre-tournament prediction: Spain v Turkey
Before the tournament, the AI’s bracket had this matchup in this slot. Reality drew Spain v Belgium instead, so everything below is kept for the record only — it is not graded against the real result above.
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 23’
- 35’
- 41’
- 52’
- 58’
- 67’
- 78’
- 84’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Quarter-final
- Date
- 10 Jul 2026
- Kick-off
- 19:00 (local)
- Stadium
- SoFi Stadium
- City
- Inglewood
Pressing & Heat Zones
High possession, right-side overload through Yamal
Deep block, counters through Yıldız left channel
4-3-34-2-3-1
Spain subs
Turkey subs
Spain's positional game suffocated Turkey at SoFi Stadium. Even without Rodri, the Pedri–Zubimendi pivot dictated tempo while Lamine Yamal repeatedly isolated Zeki Çelik on the right. Yamal's curling opener set the tone; Çalhanoğlu's composed spot-kick after a Cubarsí handball gave Turkey hope, but Oyarzabal's poacher's finish and Olmo's late strike — both stemming from sustained Spanish pressure — restored order. Turkey lacked a sustained route to goal beyond Kenan Yıldız's flashes.
- Lamine Yamal involved in 2 goals (1G, 1A) — tormented Çelik all night
- Spain dominated possession 64% and out-xG'd Turkey 2.6 to 1.0
- Çalhanoğlu penalty briefly leveled before Spain's class told
- Pedri-Zubimendi axis controlled midfield with Rodri absent
Predicted Match Report
Under the closed roof at SoFi Stadium, Spain reasserted themselves as tournament favourites with a controlled 3-1 quarterfinal win. Lamine Yamal opened the scoring on 23 minutes, cutting inside off the right and bending a left-footed strike beyond Mert Günok after a slick Pedri reverse pass. Turkey, defending deep, found a lifeline just before half-time when Pau Cubarsí blocked a Kenan Yıldız cross with a raised arm; Hakan Çalhanoğlu sent Unai Simón the wrong way from the spot to make it 1-1. But Spain's quality told after the break. On 67 minutes Nico Williams burst clear on the left and squared for Mikel Oyarzabal to tap home, and Yamal turned provider on 84, gliding past Çelik again to set up Dani Olmo for the clincher. Turkey's brave resistance was ultimately overwhelmed by Spanish possession and movement. Spain march into the semifinals.