The AI predicted a different matchup here
- 1
Pre-tournament bracket: Croatia v Spain in this slot — wrong matchup.
Its original bracket had Portugal reaching the Quarter-final and Spain reaching the Semi-final.
- 2
Reality: Portugal v Spain.
The real bracket broke differently, so the pre-tournament prediction for this game no longer applied.
- 3
Re-predicted with the real teams, before kickoff: Portugal 1–2 Spain, Spain through at 60.0%.
Every knockout round was re-predicted this way once the real matchups were known. This fresh call — not the original one — is what the accuracy grade below measures.
Spain topped their group with a perfect defensive record and the most controlled midfield in the tournament — Rodri and Pedri dictating the tempo — which should just outlast a Portugal side that drew twice in the group stage. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams stretch Roberto Martínez’s back line, and Spain’s greater balance edges a tight, high-quality Iberian derby 2–1.
SpainSpain topped their group with a perfect defensive record and the most controlled midfield in the tournament — Rodri and Pedri dictating the tempo — which should just outlast a Portugal side that drew twice in the group stage. Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams stretch Roberto Martínez’s back line, and Spain’s greater balance edges a tight, high-quality Iberian derby 2–1.
Re-prediction vs Result
8.0/10Correct result, off on the scoreline. Graded against the AI's fresh call for the real matchup — not the original pre-tournament prediction (archived below).
AI Win Probability — real matchup
PORESPProbability of winning the tie — re-predicted before kickoff with the real teams.
From the archive — superseded
The original pre-tournament prediction: Croatia v Spain
Before the tournament, the AI’s bracket had this matchup in this slot. Reality drew Portugal v Spain instead, so everything below is kept for the record only — it is not graded against the real result above.
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 23’
- 38’
- 52’
- 55’
- 67’
- 71’
- 78’
- 84’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Round of 16
- Date
- 06 Jul 2026
- Kick-off
- 19:00 (local)
- Stadium
- AT&T Stadium
- City
- Arlington
Pressing & Heat Zones
Croatia's defensive shape — deep block concentrated in their own half, with narrow mid-block channels
Spain's attacking zones — wide channels and final-third overloads, especially down the right (Yamal) and left (N. Williams)
Spain were the deserved winners of a tactically absorbing Round of 16 tie. Croatia's 4-1-4-1 deep block was well-organised and disciplined, limiting Spain to just three shots on target in the first half, but the structural problem was always the same: with Jakić as a lone pivot, Croatia lacked the numbers to press Spain's build-up, meaning Pedri and Rodri had acres of space to circulate the ball and probe. Spain's 62% possession figure understates their dominance in the final third — their 2.6 xG was built on high-quality, central-area chances rather than speculative long-range efforts. Yamal's goal was against the xG model (a tight-angle finish rated at 0.09 xG), but Olmo's winner was a high-probability chance (0.41 xG) that reflected Spain's ability to manufacture quality opportunities through patient build-up. Croatia's equaliser was a reminder of their counter-attacking threat — Modrić's vision and Kramarić's movement remain elite — but they simply couldn't sustain the intensity required to threaten a Spain side of this calibre for 90 minutes. The key tactical battle was in the half-spaces: Spain's inverted wingers (Yamal right, Williams left) constantly dragged Croatia's full-backs narrow, opening the wide channels for Porro and Cucurella to overlap. Croatia's wide midfielders (Vlašić and M. Pašalić) were caught between tracking the overlaps and staying compact, and Spain exploited those moments of indecision ruthlessly.
- Spain dominated possession (62%) and created 2.6 xG — their highest in the tournament so far.
- Lamine Yamal became the youngest player to score in a World Cup R16 at just 18 years old.
- Modrić, 40, played all 90 minutes — a masterclass in reading the game even at the death of his World Cup career.
- Croatia's 4-1-4-1 block held Spain to just 3 shots on target in the first half, making the Yamal goal feel against the run of play.
- Dani Olmo's 78th-minute winner was his 4th goal of the tournament, cementing his status as Spain's tournament MVP.
- Croatia's press completion rate dropped to 34% after the 60th minute as legs tired under Spain's relentless circulation.
Predicted Match Report
AT&T Stadium in Arlington buzzed with the electricity of a World Cup knockout classic as Spain's generational talent collided with Croatia's battle-hardened veterans in a Round of 16 tie that ultimately confirmed the torch has been passed.
Spain drew first blood in the 23rd minute through a moment of breathtaking individual quality. Nico Williams collected a long diagonal from Fabián Ruiz on the left flank, drove inside, and slid a perfectly weighted through ball into the channel for Lamine Yamal, who had peeled off Stanišić with a sharp inside run. The 18-year-old Barcelona winger opened his body and curled a right-footed finish across Livaković into the far corner — a goal of staggering composure for someone so young on a stage so vast.
Croatia refused to buckle. Modrić, conducting his orchestra with the calm authority of a man who has been here before, began to find pockets between Spain's press lines, threading passes into Kramarić's feet. The equaliser arrived seven minutes into the second half: Modrić picked up a loose ball 30 yards out, drove forward and slipped a first-time through ball between Laporte and Cubarsí for Kramarić, who took one touch and slotted low past Unai Simón. The Croatian bench erupted; the old guard had answered.
But Spain's quality proved relentless. Luis de la Fuente introduced Mikel Merino for Fabián Ruiz in the 70th minute, and within eight minutes the change paid dividends. Pedri — imperious all evening — received a short pass from Rodri, turned sharply past Jakić, and played a disguised reverse pass into the feet of Dani Olmo in the left channel. Olmo took a touch to set himself and drove a low, powerful finish through Livaković's near post. The Croatian goalkeeper got a hand to it but couldn't keep it out.
Croatia pushed desperately in the final minutes — Budimir came on for the tiring Kramarić, and Perišić's pace caused fleeting problems down the left — but Spain's defensive organisation, anchored by the imperious Rodri and the composed Cubarsí, held firm. The final whistle confirmed Spain's passage to the quarter-finals, where they will face the winner of the other side of the bracket.
For Modrić, it may well have been his last World Cup match. He left the field to a standing ovation from all corners of the stadium — a fitting farewell for one of the greatest midfielders the game has ever seen. For Yamal and Olmo, it was merely the latest chapter in what promises to be a long, glittering story.