Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 27’Aguerd
- David · Davies⚽34’
- Koné44’
- 58’⚽Díaz · Hakimi
- Cornelius67’
- 72’Ounahi
- 81’⚽El Kaabi · Hakimi
- Eustáquio88’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Round of 16
- Date
- 04 Jul 2026
- Kick-off
- 17:00 (local)
- Stadium
- NRG Stadium
- City
- Houston
Pressing & Heat Zones
Canada activity concentrated in wide left channel (Davies) and central midfield; limited penetration in final third
Morocco dominant on right flank via Hakimi overlaps; high press in central and attacking thirds
Canada subs
- 10Larin
- 19Shaffelburg
- 20Choinière
- 18Oluwaseyi
- 15Waterman
- 22Laryea
- 16Flores
Morocco subs
- 7El Khannouss
- 17Rahimi
- 14Bouaddi
- 20Talbi
- 15Issa Diop
- 22El Ouahdi
- 16El Mourabet
Morocco's 2-1 victory was a masterclass in patience and transition. Canada's 4-3-3 was well-organised in the first half, but the loss of Amrabat in midfield — replaced by the less combative Saibari/El Aynaoui double pivot — paradoxically freed Morocco's attacking players from defensive responsibility, allowing Brahim Díaz and Ounahi to operate higher up the pitch. Hakimi's role was decisive: his 11 attacking actions in the second half alone generated 1.3 xG, and his crossing from the right flank was unplayable for Canada's left side. Jonathan David's clinical finish kept Canada alive, but their inability to sustain pressure after the 60th minute — a recurring theme in the knockout rounds — ultimately cost them. Morocco's defensive block, anchored by Aguerd and Riad, conceded just 0.4 xG after the equaliser, shutting down Davies and Buchanan with disciplined double-teams. The Atlas Lions' quarter-final pedigree, built on Qatar 2022's historic run, continues to grow.
- Achraf Hakimi registered two assists — both from identical right-flank overlaps — underlining his status as the tournament's most dangerous full-back.
- Jonathan David's 34th-minute opener was his 4th goal of the tournament, but Canada failed to register a single shot on target after the 60th minute.
- Morocco's xG of 2.47 was their highest of the tournament, reflecting a dominant second-half performance that overwhelmed Canada's defensive shape.
- Amrabat's absence forced a double-pivot reshuffle; Saibari and El Aynaoui combined for 94 defensive actions — the highest for any midfield pair in this round.
- Canada's press success rate dropped from 42% (group stage avg.) to 29% as Morocco's short-passing triangles bypassed the high line.
- El Kaabi's header was his 5th goal of WC2026, placing him joint-top of the Golden Boot standings heading into the quarter-finals.