The AI predicted a different matchup here
- 1
Pre-tournament bracket: Spain v Brazil in this slot — wrong matchup.
Its original bracket had France winning it all and England reaching the Quarter-final.
- 2
Reality: France v England.
The real bracket broke differently, so the pre-tournament prediction for this game no longer applied.
- 3
Re-predicted with the real teams, before kickoff: France 2–1 England, France through at 56.0%.
Every knockout round was re-predicted this way once the real matchups were known. This fresh call — not the original one — is what the accuracy grade below measures.
Third-place games open up once the stakes drop, and France still carry the sharper attack: they hadn't conceded a knockout goal until Spain shut them out, while every England win in the bracket — Congo DR, Mexico, Norway — came by a single goal with Bellingham doing the carrying. Fresher legs and a point to prove after the 0–2 semi-final edge France through an open bronze final, 2–1.
EnglandThird-place games open up once the stakes drop, and France still carry the sharper attack: they hadn't conceded a knockout goal until Spain shut them out, while every England win in the bracket — Congo DR, Mexico, Norway — came by a single goal with Bellingham doing the carrying. Fresher legs and a point to prove after the 0–2 semi-final edge France through an open bronze final, 2–1.
Re-prediction vs Result
0.0/10Result went the other way. Graded against the AI's fresh call for the real matchup — not the original pre-tournament prediction (archived below).
AI Win Probability — real matchup
FRAENGProbability of winning the tie — re-predicted before kickoff with the real teams.
From the archive — superseded
The original pre-tournament prediction: Spain v Brazil
Before the tournament, the AI’s bracket had this matchup in this slot. Reality drew France v England instead, so everything below is kept for the record only — it is not graded against the real result above.
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 23’
- 38’
- 55’
- 67’
- 72’
- 88’
- 104’
- 110’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Third-place Play-off
- Date
- 18 Jul 2026
- Kick-off
- 21:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Hard Rock Stadium
- City
- Miami Gardens
Pressing & Heat Zones
Patient buildup with possession dominance through central midfield and overloads down the left via Williams
Transition-heavy attacking through Vinícius and Raphinha on the flanks
4-3-34-2-3-1
Spain subs
Brazil subs
A heavyweight third-place classic in Miami that needed 120 minutes to separate two elite sides. Spain controlled the rhythm with Rodri and Pedri dictating, and struck first when Nico Williams cut inside and finished a slick Pedri through-ball on 23'. Brazil grew into the game and Vinícius Júnior levelled on 67' after a darting Raphinha run. With both attacks trading blows late, the game tipped into extra time, where Spain's superior squad depth told: Lamine Yamal — quiet in regulation — produced the moment of the match, gliding past Alex Sandro before squaring for Mikel Oyarzabal to slot home on 104'. Brazil threw bodies forward but Unai Simón and a disciplined Laporte-led back line held firm. The xG (2.4 vs 1.6) reflects Spain's edge in clear chances over the two hours.
- Spain dominated midfield tempo through Rodri and Pedri, posting 58% possession
- Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal combined for both Spanish goals across regulation and extra time
- Vinícius Júnior's 67th-minute strike forced extra time after a relentless second-half Brazil push
- Oyarzabal's 104th-minute winner punished Brazil's tired back line
- Both keepers excellent: Alisson and Unai Simón each made critical late saves
Predicted Match Report
Under the Miami lights at Hard Rock Stadium, Spain and Brazil delivered a third-place playoff worthy of a final. Spain set the tone early, Pedri threading a perfectly weighted ball for Nico Williams to drive inside and beat Alisson low to his right on 23 minutes. Brazil pressed harder after the break and were rewarded on 67' when Raphinha skated down the right and pulled back for Vinícius Júnior to sweep home. Chances flew at both ends in the closing stages — Unai Simón denied Matheus Cunha, Alisson clawed away from Ferran Torres — and 90 minutes settled nothing. In extra time the substitutions and depth swung it Spain's way: Lamine Yamal, introduced to torment tired legs, jinked past Alex Sandro and cut the ball back for Mikel Oyarzabal to finish on 104'. Brazil emptied the bench in search of another equaliser but Spain's defence, marshalled by Aymeric Laporte, saw it through. Spain take the bronze medal 2-1 after extra time.