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WC26AI — World Cup 2026 predicted by AI
BMO Field
Round of 32
Portugal
02 Jul 2026
2 – 1
Full time
Croatia

The AI predicted a different matchup here

  1. 1

    Pre-tournament bracket: Colombia v Croatia in this slot — wrong matchup.

    Its original bracket had Portugal reaching the Quarter-final and Croatia reaching the Round of 16.

  2. 2

    Reality: Portugal v Croatia.

    The real bracket broke differently, so the pre-tournament prediction for this game no longer applied.

  3. 3

    Re-predicted with the real teams, before kickoff: Portugal 21 Croatia, Portugal through at 58.0%.

    Every knockout round was re-predicted this way once the real matchups were known. This fresh call — not the original one — is what the accuracy grade below measures.

    Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes give Portugal the creative edge to unlock a Croatian midfield that, without the retired Modrić at his peak, is a step below its 2022 vintage. Croatia's leaky group stage (5 goals conceded) leaves them vulnerable to Portugal's clinical attack, and Martínez's side edges a competitive but ultimately one-sided-enough contest to advance in 90 minutes.

Round of 32 · 2 Jul
Portugal
vs
Croatia
Before kickoffAI had Portugal reaching the Quarter-final, Croatia reaching the Round of 16
This round21 · Portugal 10.0/10
58%42%
Actual21· Portugal through

Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes give Portugal the creative edge to unlock a Croatian midfield that, without the retired Modrić at his peak, is a step below its 2022 vintage. Croatia's leaky group stage (5 goals conceded) leaves them vulnerable to Portugal's clinical attack, and Martínez's side edges a competitive but ultimately one-sided-enough contest to advance in 90 minutes.

Re-prediction vs Result

10.0/10
AI Re-predicted (real teams)
21
Actual
21

Exact scoreline called. Graded against the AI's fresh call for the real matchup — not the original pre-tournament prediction (archived below).

AI Win Probability — real matchup

PORCRO
58.0%42.0%

Probability of winning the tie — re-predicted before kickoff with the real teams.

From the archive — superseded

The original pre-tournament prediction: Colombia v Croatia

Before the tournament, the AI’s bracket had this matchup in this slot. Reality drew Portugal v Croatia instead, so everything below is kept for the record only — it is not graded against the real result above.

Colombia vs Croatia — predicted match action

Match Prediction

47%Possession53%
14Shots13
2.10Expected Goals (xG)2.40
78%Pass Accuracy85%

How the Model Sees It Unfold

  1. 18
  2. 31
  3. 34
  4. 45
  5. 67
  6. 72
  7. 84
  8. 88
  9. 105
  10. 113

Match Info

Tournament
FIFA World Cup 2026
Stage
Round of 32
Date
02 Jul 2026
Kick-off
23:00 (local)
Stadium
BMO Field

Predicted Match Report

BMO Field in Toronto crackled with South American fervour as Colombia and Croatia served up one of the most gripping knockout ties of the entire tournament — a match that ultimately needed penalties to separate two sides who refused to yield across 120 breathless minutes.

First Half — Colombia Strike First, Croatia Hit Back Colombia came out with intent, James Rodríguez pulling every string from the No. 10 role. On 18 minutes, a sumptuous James through-ball split the Croatian back line and Luis Díaz — electric in behind Stanišić — finished low past Livaković with his right foot to send the Colombian end into raptures. It was the kind of goal that reminded everyone why Díaz had earned his move to Bayern Munich.

Croatia, however, are not a side that panics. Modrić and Kovačić steadily wrestled the midfield back, and on 31 minutes Jefferson Lerma's clumsy lunge on Vlašić earned a yellow card and, after a VAR check, a penalty on 34 minutes. Andrej Kramarić stepped up with ice-cold composure and sent Ospina the wrong way — 1-1 at the break, a fair reflection of a half in which both sides had genuine moments of quality.

Second Half — Croatia Turn the Screw Croatia emerged the sharper side after the interval. Modrić's delivery from set-pieces was a constant threat, and on 67 minutes he whipped in a corner from the right that Ivan Perišić — the old warhorse, still lethal in the air — met with a thundering header to put Croatia 2-1 up. BMO Field went quiet for a moment, then the Colombian faithful roared their team forward.

Colombia threw on Quintero and Carrascal, and the game opened up. With six minutes left, substitute Jhon Arias — who had been a menace all evening — drove to the byline and cut back for Cucho Hernández, who bundled the ball home from close range. 2-2. Pandemonium. Davinson Sánchez, already on a yellow, almost gifted Croatia a winner in stoppage time but Ospina was equal to Kramarić's snapshot.

Extra Time — Nerves, Cramp and Brilliance Both sides visibly tired but neither capitulated. James picked up a yellow on 105 minutes for a cynical foul on Kovačić, who himself was booked in the 113th minute for a late challenge on Arias. The best chance of extra time fell to Cucho on 117 minutes — his header from a Mojica cross clipped the top of the bar. Croatia's Luka Sučić, introduced in the second half, forced a superb low save from Ospina in the 119th minute. 2-2 after 120 minutes. Penalties.

Penalty Shootout — Croatia's Ice Holds The shootout was a masterclass in Croatian nerve. Colombia's third taker, Richard Ríos, saw his effort saved by Livaković diving low to his right — the save that proved decisive. Croatia converted all four of their kicks, with Modrić — the 40-year-old captain — stepping up last and rolling the ball into the bottom corner to send Croatia into the last 16. The old guard had done it again.