The AI predicted a different matchup here
- 1
Pre-tournament bracket: Turkey v Bosnia and Herzegovina in this slot — wrong matchup.
Its original bracket had United States reaching the Round of 16 and Bosnia and Herzegovina reaching the Round of 32.
- 2
Reality: United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The real bracket broke differently, so the pre-tournament prediction for this game no longer applied.
- 3
Re-predicted with the real teams, before kickoff: United States 2–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina, United States through at 63.0%.
Every knockout round was re-predicted this way once the real matchups were known. This fresh call — not the original one — is what the accuracy grade below measures.
The USA, buoyed by home-crowd energy and a dominant group stage (8 goals scored, top of Group D), have too much athleticism and pressing intensity for a Bosnia side that leaked 6 goals in the groups and scraped through as a third-place qualifier. Edin Džeko's threat keeps it nervy, but Pochettino's well-drilled high line and clinical finishing — led by the likes of Christian Pulisic — prove the difference in a hard-fought 2–1 American victory.
Bosnia and HerzegovinaThe USA, buoyed by home-crowd energy and a dominant group stage (8 goals scored, top of Group D), have too much athleticism and pressing intensity for a Bosnia side that leaked 6 goals in the groups and scraped through as a third-place qualifier. Edin Džeko's threat keeps it nervy, but Pochettino's well-drilled high line and clinical finishing — led by the likes of Christian Pulisic — prove the difference in a hard-fought 2–1 American victory.
Re-prediction vs Result
8.0/10Correct result, off on the scoreline. Graded against the AI's fresh call for the real matchup — not the original pre-tournament prediction (archived below).
AI Win Probability — real matchup
USABIHProbability of winning the tie — re-predicted before kickoff with the real teams.
From the archive — superseded
The original pre-tournament prediction: Turkey v Bosnia and Herzegovina
Before the tournament, the AI’s bracket had this matchup in this slot. Reality drew United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina instead, so everything below is kept for the record only — it is not graded against the real result above.
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- Güler · Çalhanoğlu⚽23’
- 34’
- 47’
- 58’
- 63’
- 72’
- 81’
- 85’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Round of 32
- Date
- 02 Jul 2026
- Kick-off
- 00:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Levi's Stadium
- City
- Santa Clara
Pressing & Heat Zones
Turkey attacking zones — heavy right-flank and central-attacking third presence
Bosnia defensive shape — compact mid-block with sporadic left-channel breaks
4-2-3-14-3-3Turkey were the deserved winners, leveraging superior individual quality in the final third against a Bosnia side that was well-organised but ultimately outgunned. Çalhanoğlu's deep-lying playmaking was the engine of Turkey's build-up, completing 91 passes at 88% accuracy and dictating tempo from the double-pivot. Güler's performance — a goal, an assist, and 4 key passes — was the standout of the match, confirming his status as one of the tournament's most dangerous players. Bosnia's mid-block was effective for long stretches but their defensive line was repeatedly exposed by Turkey's third-man combinations. Demirović's equaliser was a reminder of Bosnia's counter-attacking threat, and only Günok's positioning denied Džeko a fairytale goal in the 74th minute. Turkey's xG of 2.31 vs Bosnia's 1.04 reflects the one-sided nature of the chances created, even if the scoreline was tight until late.
- Arda Güler became the youngest Turkish player to score and assist in a World Cup knockout match.
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu completed 91 passes — the most of any player on the pitch — dictating Turkey's tempo from deep.
- Edin Džeko's 88th-minute substitution drew a standing ovation; he ends his final World Cup without a goal but with a captain's performance.
- Turkey's 4-2-3-1 high press forced 11 Bosnia turnovers in the opposition half in the first 45 minutes.
- Bosnia's xG of just 1.04 despite the equaliser reflects how Demirović's goal came against the run of play in the second half.
- Kenan Yıldız's 81st-minute winner was his first World Cup goal — scored with his weaker right foot at the back post.
- Turkey's back line, missing the suspended Merih Demiral, held firm through a disciplined Bardakcı–Söyüncü partnership.
Predicted Match Report
Under the blazing California sun at Levi's Stadium, Turkey edged Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-1 in a pulsating Round of 32 clash that showcased the best of both nations' footballing identities — and confirmed that Arda Güler is ready for the biggest stages in the world.
Turkey started with intent, pressing high through the twin engines of Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Salih Özcan. It was Çalhanoğlu who unlocked the game in the 23rd minute: a perfectly weighted through-ball from deep split Bosnia's back four, and Arda Güler — drifting in from the right half-space with that trademark languid elegance — took one touch to set and curled a left-footed shot into the far corner past a helpless Nikola Vasilj. The Levi's Stadium erupted. At 19, Güler looked every inch the Real Madrid playmaker.
Bosnia, to their credit, refused to fold. Edin Džeko — the veteran captain playing what may be his final World Cup — held the ball magnificently in the channels, and Ermedin Demirović was a constant menace in behind. On 58 minutes, Džeko flicked a clever header into Demirović's run, and the Stuttgart striker finished low across Mert Günok to level. The equaliser was deserved; Bosnia had grown into the second half and Turkey's high line was beginning to look vulnerable.
The decisive moment came with nine minutes remaining. Güler — involved in everything — picked up the ball on the right and slid a perfectly timed pass into the penalty area where Kenan Yıldız, arriving late at the back post, side-footed home with composure beyond his years. 2-1 Turkey, and this time there was no way back for Bosnia.
Džeko was withdrawn to a standing ovation in the 88th minute — a fitting farewell to a legend. Turkey advance to the Round of 16 with their two brightest young stars, Güler and Yıldız, announcing themselves to a global audience.