The AI predicted a different matchup here
- 1
Pre-tournament bracket: Ivory Coast v Senegal in this slot — wrong matchup.
Its original bracket had Ivory Coast reaching the Round of 32 and Norway reaching the Round of 32.
- 2
Reality: Ivory Coast v Norway.
The real bracket broke differently, so the pre-tournament prediction for this game no longer applied.
- 3
Re-predicted with the real teams, before kickoff: Ivory Coast 1–2 Norway, Norway through at 65.0%.
Every knockout round was re-predicted this way once the real matchups were known. This fresh call — not the original one — is what the accuracy grade below measures.
Norway's potent attack — spearheaded by Erling Haaland and backed by a goal-hungry group stage (8 goals scored) — proves too much for an Ivory Coast defence that already conceded twice in the groups. Haaland's movement and physicality repeatedly troubles CIV's centre-backs, and Norway's greater European top-flight quality in midfield allows them to control the tempo and seal a deserved last-16 victory.
NorwayNorway's potent attack — spearheaded by Erling Haaland and backed by a goal-hungry group stage (8 goals scored) — proves too much for an Ivory Coast defence that already conceded twice in the groups. Haaland's movement and physicality repeatedly troubles CIV's centre-backs, and Norway's greater European top-flight quality in midfield allows them to control the tempo and seal a deserved last-16 victory.
Re-prediction vs Result
10.0/10Exact scoreline called. Graded against the AI's fresh call for the real matchup — not the original pre-tournament prediction (archived below).
AI Win Probability — real matchup
CIVNORProbability of winning the tie — re-predicted before kickoff with the real teams.
From the archive — superseded
The original pre-tournament prediction: Ivory Coast v Senegal
Before the tournament, the AI’s bracket had this matchup in this slot. Reality drew Ivory Coast v Norway instead, so everything below is kept for the record only — it is not graded against the real result above.
Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- 34’
- 41’
- 53’
- 57’
- 67’
- 72’
- 78’
- 85’
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Round of 32
- Date
- 30 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 17:00 (local)
- Stadium
- AT&T Stadium
- City
- Arlington
Pressing & Heat Zones
Ivory Coast attack concentrated on the left flank and central areas; limited penetration in the second half
Senegal dominated central midfield and pressed high through the right channel; Jackson and Mané created overloads in the box
Senegal's tactical shift at half-time was the decisive factor. Aliou Cissé moved Pape Matar Sarr into a more advanced role, effectively creating a 4-2-3-1 with genuine width and depth. This overwhelmed CIV's midfield three, which had been set up to dominate possession rather than absorb a high press. Ivory Coast's xG of 1.21 was largely built on first-half momentum; after the 60th minute they managed just one shot on target. Senegal's double-pivot of Gueye and Camara was outstanding — winning second balls, recycling quickly, and denying Kessié and Sangaré the time to play forward. Nicolas Jackson's physicality and link-up play with Mané gave Senegal a focal point that CIV's centre-backs could not handle in a two-on-two. The result is a fair reflection of the second-half balance of play, even if CIV's opener flattered to deceive early on.
- Sadio Mané's equaliser was his 37th international goal — a new all-time Senegal record at a World Cup finals.
- Nicolas Jackson's winner was his 3rd goal in 4 World Cup 2026 matches, cementing his status as Senegal's focal point.
- Ivory Coast's xG of 1.21 flattered a side that mustered just one shot on target in the second half.
- Senegal dominated the second-half press, winning 9 of 11 duels in CIV's defensive third after the 60th minute.
- Pape Matar Sarr's creative output (2 key passes, 1 assist) was the engine of Senegal's second-half turnaround.
- CIV captain Kessié was largely nullified by Gueye and Camara's double-pivot, completing only 61% of his passes.
Predicted Match Report
AT&T Stadium in Arlington buzzed with a West African derby atmosphere as Ivory Coast and Senegal — two of the continent's heavyweights — clashed in the Round of 32 under the Texas heat. CIV drew first blood in a bright opening half, only for Senegal to flip the script with a commanding second-half display.
First Half — Les Éléphants strike first Ivory Coast started with purpose and energy, Amad Diallo a constant menace down the right channel. It was his incisive through-ball in the 34th minute that split Senegal's high defensive line and found Simon Adingra in behind. The Monaco winger took one touch to steady himself and slotted calmly past Édouard Mendy to give CIV the lead. Senegal's response was immediate but imprecise — Sadio Mané twice drifted into dangerous pockets only to be crowded out by Kossounou and Ndicka. Ibrahim Sangaré's yellow card on the stroke of half-time for a cynical foul on Lamine Camara hinted at the tension building beneath the surface.
Second Half — Senegal's Lions roar back Aliou Cissé's half-time words clearly landed. Senegal came out with greater urgency, Pape Matar Sarr dropping deeper to receive and drive forward. The equaliser arrived on 57 minutes: Nicolas Jackson held up play brilliantly on the edge of the box, laid it off to Mané, who had ghosted in from the left, and the Al-Nassr captain swept a first-time finish into the bottom right corner — his record-breaking 37th Senegal international goal. The momentum was entirely with the Lions. Gueye and Camara strangled Kessié's influence in midfield, and Sarr's driving runs from deep began to carve open CIV's retreating shape. The decisive moment came on 78 minutes: Sarr played a perfectly weighted diagonal to Jackson, who had peeled off Evan Ndicka's shoulder. The Bayern Munich striker controlled on his chest and finished with clinical authority — 2-1 Senegal. Ivory Coast threw on Pépé and Bonny in desperation, and Ndicka earned a yellow for a last-ditch foul, but the Lions held firm. Senegal advance to the Round of 16 in a result that underlines their credentials as Africa's premier side at this tournament.