Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- Gakpo · Reijnders⚽18’
- 34’⚽Díaz · Hakimi
- 42’Amrabat
- de Roon55’
- 71’⚽El Kaabi · Hakimi
- 78’Aguerd
- van Dijk · Koopmeiners⚽87’
- de Jong103’
- 114’Amrabat
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Round of 32
- Date
- 30 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 01:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Estadio BBVA
- City
- Guadalupe
Pressing & Heat Zones
Netherlands — dominant in central midfield and right-flank corridors; high press in opponent's half
Morocco — compact defensive block, dangerous on right-flank transitions through Hakimi
Netherlands subs
- 6Koopmeiners
- 15De Roon
- 19Weghorst
- 10Memphis
- 17Summerville
- 3Van de Ven
- 20J. Kluivert
- 16Flekken
Morocco subs
- 7El Khannouss
- 14Saibari
- 17Rahimi
- 15El Aynaoui
- 13Issa Diop
- 19Talbi
- 16Bouaddi
- 23Munir
Morocco's Round of 32 victory over the Netherlands is the tournament's first major upset and a statement of Atlas Lion intent. Walid Regragui's 4-2-3-1 was perfectly calibrated: Amrabat and Ounahi formed a disciplined double pivot that denied Frenkie de Jong time on the ball, while Hakimi's relentless overlapping runs on the right stretched the Dutch left side to breaking point. Both Moroccan goals originated from that corridor. Netherlands' high possession was largely sideways and predictable — only Reijnders and Gakpo consistently threatened in behind. Koeman's late changes injected urgency, and Van Dijk's header showed Dutch resilience, but Bounou's shootout heroics ultimately proved the difference. Morocco's defensive organisation, counter-attacking sharpness and set-piece discipline make them a genuine dark horse to go deep in this tournament.
- Achraf Hakimi registered two assists and completed 7/7 dribbles — the standout individual of the match
- Ayoub El Kaabi's header was his 4th goal of the tournament, making him Morocco's joint top scorer at a World Cup
- Virgil van Dijk's 87th-minute equaliser was his 3rd World Cup goal — all headers
- Yassine Bounou made 7 saves including a decisive stop in the shootout, posting a 0.71 PSxG-prevented
- Morocco's xG of 1.8 belied their efficiency — they scored twice from just 5 shots on target
- Sofyan Amrabat's second yellow in ET reduced Morocco to 10 men but the Atlas Lions held on heroically
- Netherlands dominated possession (57%) but were undone by Morocco's lethal counter-attacking transitions
- The shootout was decided by Bounou's save from Malen — the only miss of the entire shootout sequence