Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- Güler · Çalhanoğlu⚽23’
- 34’Cubas
- Özcan51’
- 57’⚽Sanabria · Sosa
- 67’Balbuena
- Yıldız · Güler⚽78’
- 82’Sanabria
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Group Stage
- Date
- 20 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 03:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Levi's Stadium
- City
- Santa Clara
Pressing & Heat Zones
Turkey dominated the central corridor and right half-space, with Arda Güler and Çalhanoğlu combining repeatedly in the attacking third.
Paraguay sat deep in a compact mid-block, with activity concentrated in their own half and right flank through Almirón and Sosa on the counter.
Turkey subs
- 12Altay Bayındır
- 6Orkun Kökçü
- 17İrfan Can Kahveci
- 19Yunus Akgün
- 21Barış Alper Yılmaz
- 22Kaan Ayhan
- 15Ozan Kabak
- 26Can Uzun
Paraguay subs
- 12Orlando Gill
- 5Fabián Balbuena
- 11Maurício
- 16Damián Bobadilla
- 17Kaku
- 21Gabriel Ávalos
- 25Isidro Pitta
- 20Braian Ojeda
Turkey's 4-2-3-1 was designed to give Arda Güler the freedom to roam as a No. 10 with licence to drift wide, and it worked to near-perfection. Çalhanoğlu's positioning as a single pivot — deeper than usual — allowed Güler to operate in the half-spaces between Paraguay's midfield and defensive lines, a zone Paraguay's 4-4-2 block struggled to cover. The first goal was a textbook exploitation of that gap. Paraguay's equalizer exposed a recurring vulnerability in Turkey's high defensive line: when Sosa received the ball in wide areas with time and space, the Turkish backline was susceptible to early deliveries. Sanabria's movement off the ball — checking away from Demiral before attacking the cross — was intelligent and clinical. The decisive factor in Turkey's win was their depth of attacking talent. Kenan Yıldız, operating on the left of the attacking three, grew into the game and his late-run goal demonstrated the kind of instinctive movement that makes him one of Europe's most exciting young forwards. Paraguay, despite their organization, simply lacked the quality in the final third to punish Turkey more than once. Almirón showed flashes of his best form but was largely isolated, and Enciso was too peripheral to influence the result. Turkey's three points are deserved, but they will need to tighten their defensive shape against higher-quality opposition in the knockout rounds.
- Arda Güler registered 1 goal and 1 assist — the most direct goal contributions of any player on the pitch.
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu completed 91% of his passes and created 3 key chances, bossing the midfield battle.
- Turkey's xG of 2.31 vs Paraguay's 1.04 reflects the clear gulf in attacking quality.
- Paraguay's aerial threat was their most dangerous weapon — Sanabria won 6 of 7 aerial duels.
- Ramón Sosa created 4 chances from the right flank, the most of any Paraguay player.
- Turkey's 57% possession was their lowest expected figure against a CONMEBOL side in recent memory, reflecting Paraguay's disciplined mid-block.
- Kenan Yıldız's winner was his first ever World Cup goal, arriving as a 78th-minute substitute impact from his advanced midfield role.