Match Prediction
How the Model Sees It Unfold
- Gyökeres · Isak⚽23’
- 34’Khedira
- 57’⚽Mejbri · Skhiri
- 62’Bronn
- Svanberg71’
- 76’Talbi
- Isak⚽78’
- 79’Talbi
Match Info
- Tournament
- FIFA World Cup 2026
- Stage
- Group Stage
- Date
- 15 Jun 2026
- Kick-off
- 02:00 (local)
- Stadium
- Estadio BBVA
- City
- Guadalupe
Pressing & Heat Zones
Sweden's attacking pressure concentrated through the right channel and central attacking third, with Isak and Gyökeres combining in the box.
Tunisia's activity clustered in their own defensive third and the central midfield corridor, with sporadic transitions through Hannibal on the left.
Sweden subs
- 10Nygren
- 13Sema
- 16Karlström
- 15Starfelt
- 6Holm
- 25G. Nilsson
- 12V. Johansson
Tunisia subs
- Gharbi
- Tounekti
- Achouri
- Elloumi
- Ben Ouanes
- O. Rekik
- Ben Hessen
Sweden's 4-3-3 was built to exploit Tunisia's narrow 4-4-2 with wide overloads, and it worked to near-perfection. Gyökeres and Isak's fluid interchanging — one dropping deep, one running in behind — created constant dilemmas for Bronn and Talbi. Bergvall's role as the progressive midfielder was central: his 7 progressive carries and 5 key passes ensured Sweden's press had both defensive and offensive teeth. Tunisia's best moments came through Hannibal's freedom to roam between the lines, and Skhiri's ability to win second balls, but the loss of Talbi to a second yellow effectively ended the contest. Sweden's front three averaged a combined xG of 1.84 — a frightening return for opponents in the knockout rounds. Tunisia will need to regroup quickly; their defensive structure is sound, but the quality gap at the top of the pitch is stark.
- Viktor Gyökeres opened his World Cup account with a clinical near-post finish — his 9th goal in his last 11 international appearances.
- Alexander Isak created the opener and converted the decisive penalty, registering a goal and an assist in a man-of-the-match display.
- Hannibal Mejbri's 57th-minute equaliser was the highest-xG shot of the match (0.38 xG) — a world-class individual moment.
- Montassar Talbi's double yellow in the space of 3 minutes was the turning point — Tunisia had been competitive at 1–1 with 11 men.
- Sweden's xG of 2.31 vs Tunisia's 0.97 reflects the gulf in attacking quality, despite the scoreline flattering the contest.
- Lucas Bergvall completed 94 touches — the most of any player on the pitch — underlining Sweden's midfield dominance.
- Tunisia's 4-4-2 defensive block held firm for 57 minutes, but the loss of Talbi exposed their backline fatally in the final stages.